This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone - one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats "during my 50 years of following politics closely." The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.
But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.
And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. Recent NBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.
This reminds me of the polling that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points in early January, but which also showed her and Scott Brown tied among those most interested in the race.
Rasmussen has a chart that summarizes several "wave midterm elections," marking those with a poor economy, an overextended party, or a controversial agenda.
The data show that in elections where two of these factors are present, the party that controls the Presidency loses about 50 seats. But in this election, all three factors are present. To get an idea what this means, imagine what 1974 might have looked like if 1972 had produced a Congressional landslide to go with the Presidential landslide, and Republicans had entered the year with 232 seats instead of 192 seats. What if the economy had been in recession in 1966? What if Eisenhower had followed a more partisan agenda before 1958? What if Roosevelt had enjoyed his typical coattails in 1944, instead of receiving the fairly narrow 242 seat majority?
Those elections probably would have looked like 1938, 1894, or 1874. In those elections, the American people took their vengeance out on a party that was perceived as incompetent, and that was predisposed to fall due to the massive size of its majority. What we're seeing in the polls is a manifestation of something similar. While the power of incumbency has increased significantly since the 1950s, it's also true that both the Republicans and the Democrats are national parties now for the first time in our history. If Republicans can win in Massachusetts, they can win just about anywhere. And remember, Republicans don't need to win in Massachusetts for a landslide; they could pick up seventy seats without winning a single one in a Democratic-leaning district.
It is easy to get caught in the anticipation of watching Democrats get a well-deserved drubbing in the elections. However, this is not the time to relax and think that the game is over. For months we thought Obamacare was dead, especially after the August recess last year. And yet they pulled that one through. We thought Cap and Trade was dead, and it found new life in the Senate, no thanks to Lindsay "I am a RINO" Graham. Those who are determined enough will find a way to claw their way back.
We also have to remember that the goal is not just beating the Democrats: It is to make sure that those who replace them will actually adhere to our principles of constitutionally-limited small government and fiscal responsibility. We lose if we replace a big government spender with another big government spender that just happens to have an "R" after his name.
So, although it's great news that the Democrats are facing an electoral bloodbath, we can't just sit back and think the game is over. (If I were more of a sports fanatic, I'd probably be able to name some games where everyone thought the game over at half-time, only to find the underdog winning as the buzzer sounded. But I'm not, so I can't.)
And for the years after 2010, we have to have a plan in place to make sure that what happened in 2008, when the Democrats took over all aspects of government and proceeded to remake the United States into their warped version of Western Europe, will never happen again.
No comments:
Post a Comment